By The Intrepid in PDW — 02 May 2025

Holding Space: The Second Tool

Choosing Long Arms for Urban Defense: Balancing Practicality and Perception

Foreword

You don’t carry a long arm because you want to be seen.
You carry it because you might not be seen again.

In most cases, if you’re shouldering a rifle in public, something’s terribly broken. The lights are out. The stores are empty. The police aren’t coming—or they’re already here, and you’re not sure what they’re here for.

This isn’t about LARPing collapse. It’s not about cosplay, cosplay’s cousins, or cinematic last stands. It’s about margin. About recognizing the line between the world as it was and the one you now find yourself in.

Self-defense is a right. But it’s strongest when it’s not just about you.

This companion piece builds on A Fighting Chance, which made the case for a handgun—specifically, the Glock G17—as the reluctant urbanite’s first and best line of personal defense. But what if the emergency lingers? What if the hallway gets louder? What if it’s not just your door?

The “bug out” fantasy is obsolete. You’re not heading to the woods. You’re holding space. For yourself. For your family. For your block.

Let’s talk about long arms. Not as relics or ornaments, but as second tools in a world where you stay put and stand ready—because no one else is going to do it for you.

In an unpredictable world, the average urban or suburban resident—a middle-income family person with limited time, budget, and firearms experience—faces tough choices when preparing for short-term "shit hits the fan" (SHTF) scenarios like riots, power outages, or natural disasters. The essay A Fighting Chance: Defensive Arms for the Reluctant Civilian argues that handguns, particularly the Glock G17 (9mm, $500), are the optimal choice for these "average Joes," prioritizing affordability, simplicity, and family safety.

But what about long arms—rifles and shotguns? While powerful, they introduce trade-offs, including cost, complexity, and, for some, the "scary black gun" stigma tied to rifles like the AR-15 or AK-47. This blog post evaluates long arms’ suitability for urban SHTF, comparing modern sporting rifles (AR/AK), shotguns, and "less scary looking" alternatives (lever-action, bolt-action, Ruger Rancher-style carbines) to the Glock G17, addressing practical needs and public perception.

Defining the Average Joe’s Needs

The average Joe earns $60,000–$80,000/year, lives in a city or suburb with a spouse and kids (ages 5–18), and has minimal firearms experience. Their SHTF scenarios are short-term (days to weeks), involving home defense against looters, escorting family to safety, or securing supplies. Key priorities include:

Affordability: Limited discretionary income ($300–$600/month) restricts spending on guns, ammo, and training.
Simplicity: Firearms must be easy to use with minimal training, given busy schedules (40–50 hours/week work, parenting).
Family Safety: High capacity and safe storage (e.g., quick-access safe) are critical to protect against threats while preventing child access.
Training Accessibility: Urban ranges ($10–$25/visit) and time constraints (1–2 hours/month) limit live-fire practice.
Discreet Use: In urban settings, avoiding attention from looters or neighbors is key, making the "scary black gun" stigma a concern.

The Glock G17 excels here, costing $500, using affordable 9mm ammo ($15–$30/month for 50–100 rounds), offering 17+1 rounds, and requiring minimal maintenance. Long arms, however, must match these priorities while navigating perception challenges.

Long Arms in Urban SHTF: A Broad Look

Long arms—rifles and shotguns—offer greater range and firepower than handguns but are less portable and harder to store. Their suitability depends on aligning with the average Joe’s constraints.

Modern Sporting Rifles (AR-15, AK-47)

Cost: Entry-level AR-15s (e.g., Ruger AR-556, $600–$800) or AK-47s (e.g., WASR-10, $700–$900) are pricier than the Glock G17. Ammo (5.56mm: $0.35–$0.50/round; 7.62x39mm: $0.40–$0.60/round) costs $175–$300 for 500 rounds, with monthly training (50 rounds) at $17.50–$30, straining budgets compared to 9mm ($15–$30).
Simplicity: AR-15s are intuitive, with low recoil and modular designs, but require training for optics, malfunctions, and cleaning. AKs are durable but less ergonomic. Both are more complex than the Glock’s trigger-only system.
Family Safety: 30-round magazines handle multiple threats, but 35–40” lengths hinder maneuverability in tight spaces (hallways, vehicles). Larger safes ($300–$600) are needed vs. handgun safes ($100–$200), increasing costs and child access risks.
Training: Ammo costs and range restrictions (some urban ranges limit rifles) reduce practice compared to the Glock’s efficient dry-fire and 9mm range sessions.
SHTF Fit: Effective beyond 100 yards, AR/AKs are overkill for urban close-quarters (0–15 yards). Their tactical look risks escalating tensions in crowded settings, unlike the Glock’s concealability.
Stigma: Black polymer, pistol grips, and high-capacity magazines earn the "scary black gun" label, potentially attracting looter or authority attention during SHTF.

Shotguns (Mossberg 500, Remington 870)

Cost: Mossberg 500 ($350–$500) is cheaper than rifles but costlier than budget handguns ($250–$499). 12-gauge buckshot ($0.80–$1.20/round) costs $80–$120 for 100 rounds, with training (25 rounds/month) at $20–$30, less affordable than the Glock.
Simplicity: Pump-action shotguns are mechanically simple but have heavy recoil and slow tube-fed reloads, complicating use under stress compared to the Glock’s semi-auto ease.
Family Safety: 5–8 round capacity is lower than the Glock’s 17+1, and 39–48” lengths hinder home defense. Buckshot risks over-penetration in urban settings, endangering family or neighbors.
Training: High ammo costs and recoil limit range time. Dry-fire is less practical than the Glock’s trigger drills.
SHTF Fit: Shotguns dominate at 25–50 yards but are bulky for escorts. Their hunting aesthetic avoids stigma but doesn’t offset practical drawbacks.
Stigma: Pump shotguns are seen as traditional, less "scary," but their size draws attention compared to concealed handguns.

Analysis

Long arms’ higher costs, complexity, and bulk clash with the average Joe’s priorities. The Glock G17’s affordability ($500, $15–$30/month), simplicity (trigger-only, low maintenance), and concealability better suit urban SHTF, where close-quarters defense (0–15 yards) and discretion are paramount. AR/AKs offer firepower but risk perception issues, while shotguns are limited by recoil and capacity.

Addressing the "Scary Black Gun" Stigma

The tactical appearance of AR-15s and AKs—black stocks, rails, and large magazines—can signal threat in urban SHTF, escalating conflicts during family escorts or supply runs. "Less scary" long arms, like lever-action, bolt-action, and Ruger Rancher-style rifles, blend better as hunting or sport firearms, reducing public alarm. Let’s evaluate these alternatives.

Lever-Action Rifles (Henry X Model, Marlin 336)

Cost: $500–$900 (e.g., Henry X, $700). Ammo (.30-30: $1–$1.50/round; .357 Magnum: $0.80–$1.20/round) costs $400–$750 for 500 rounds, with training (50 rounds/month) at $40–$75, less affordable than the Glock ($15–$30).
Simplicity: Manual lever cycling is slower than the Glock or AR-15, and tube-fed reloads are cumbersome under stress. Maintenance is simple but less reliable than the Glock in dirty conditions.
Family Safety: 5–10 rounds and 38–42” lengths are less practical than the Glock’s 17+1 and 8” for tight spaces. Larger safes increase costs.
Training: High ammo costs and manual action limit practice. Dry-fire is impractical compared to the Glock.
SHTF Fit: Best at 25–100 yards, lever-actions are overkill for urban defense (0–15 yards). .357 Magnum is less common than 9mm for scavenging.
Stigma: Wood stocks and cowboy aesthetics (e.g., Marlin 336) appear as hunting rifles, minimizing attention compared to AR/AKs.

Bolt-Action Rifles (Ruger American, Savage Axis)

Cost: $350–$600 (e.g., Ruger American, $500). Ammo (.308: $1–$1.50/round; .223: $0.40–$0.60/round) costs $200–$750 for 500 rounds, with training (25 rounds/month) at $10–$37.50, costlier than the Glock.
Simplicity: Manual bolt cycling slows follow-up shots, and reloading is deliberate, impractical for fast-paced SHTF. Less reliable than the Glock under stress.
Family Safety: 3–5 rounds and 40–44” lengths hinder urban use. Storage is costly and bulky.
Training: Ammo costs and scope use demand more practice than the Glock’s point-and-shoot simplicity.
SHTF Fit: Designed for 100–500 yards, bolt-actions are irrelevant for close-quarters. Hunting aesthetics reduce stigma but not practical limitations.
Stigma: Non-tactical designs (e.g., Ruger American in .308) are seen as less threatening, ideal for discretion.

Ruger Rancher-Style Carbines (Ruger PC Carbine)

Cost: $600–$750. Uses 9mm ($0.25–$0.30/round), with 500 rounds at $125–$250 and training (50–100 rounds/month) at $15–$30, matching the Glock’s affordability.
Simplicity: Semi-auto, Glock mag-compatible, and low-recoil, it’s nearly as intuitive as the Glock, though controls are slightly more complex. Maintenance is reliable in SHTF.
Family Safety: 17+1 rounds match the Glock, but 34–36” length and 6.5–7 lbs require larger safes and hinder tight-space use compared to the Glock’s 25 oz.
Training: 9mm ammo and range accessibility align with the Glock. Dry-fire is less practical due to size but viable.
SHTF Fit: Effective at 25–50 yards, it suits urban defense with 9mm ubiquity for scavenging. Its non-tactical look (no pistol grip, adjustable stock) reduces alarm.
Stigma: Resembling a tradi rifle, the PC Carbine avoids the "scary" label, blending better in suburban settings.

Comparative Insights

The Ruger PC Carbine stands out among long arms, matching the Glock’s affordability and simplicity while avoiding the AR/AK’s stigma. Its 9mm caliber and Glock mag compatibility make it a practical extension of the handgun, ideal for home defense or escorts at slightly longer ranges (15–25 yards). Lever/bolt-actions are costlier and slower, misaligning with urban needs. The Glock G17 remains primary due to its concealability, rapid deployment, and lower storage costs, critical for family-centric SHTF.

Addressing Traditionalist Views

Traditionalists may favor lever/bolt-actions or shotguns for their heritage, stopping power (.30-30, .308, 12-gauge), and non-tactical look, arguing they outperform “plastic” Glocks or ARs in SHTF. However:

Budget/Time: Higher ammo costs ($10–$75/month vs. $15–$30 for Glock/PC Carbine) and training demands strain resources.
Simplicity: Manual actions increase errors under stress, unlike the Glock or PC Carbine’s semi-auto reliability.
SHTF Reality: Urban defense (0–15 yards) prioritizes capacity (17+1) and speed over range or power. 9mm JHP suffices for close-quarters, and low-capacity lever/bolt-actions (3–10 rounds) fall short.

The PC Carbine bridges traditionalist preferences (non-tactical, reliable) with practical needs, but the Glock remains the core tool.

Recommendations

For the average Joe, the Glock G17 ($500, 9mm) is the primary defensive firearm, offering unmatched affordability, simplicity, and concealability. Long arms are supplementary, with choices depending on budget and stigma concerns:

Primary Handgun: Buy a Glock G17 ($500), 3–5 magazines ($20–$30 each), a holster ($30–$50), a biometric safe ($100–$200), and 500–1000 9mm rounds ($125–$250). Train 50–100 rounds/month ($15–$30) and 10–15 minutes/day dry-fire, focusing on 5–15 yard drills.
Supplementary Long Arm:
- Best Option: Ruger PC Carbine ($600–$750, 9mm). Add a sling ($20) and red-dot sight ($100). Train 50–100 rounds/month ($15–$30). Use for home defense or escorts, leveraging 9mm commonality and low stigma.
- Alternatives:
  - Lever-Action: Henry X Model ($700, .357 Magnum). Train 25–50 rounds/month ($20–$60). Use for static defense if 9mm is unavailable.
  - Bolt-Action: Ruger American ($500, .223). Train 25 rounds/month ($10–$15). Use for rare longer-range threats (25–100 yards).
  - Shotgun: Mossberg 500 ($350–$500, 12-gauge). Train 25 rounds/month ($20–$30). Use for static home defense.
Storage: Secure long arms in a larger safe ($300–$600) to prevent child access.
SHTF Strategy: Carry the Glock for concealability; stage the PC Carbine at home for backup. Use lever/bolt-actions or shotguns only if ammo or scenario dictates.

Conclusion

Long arms enhance firepower but fall short of the Glock G17’s practicality for urban SHTF. The Ruger PC Carbine is the best long-arm option, balancing affordability, simplicity, and a non-threatening appearance, making it a viable backup for home defense or escorts. Lever-action, bolt-action, and shotguns, while discreet, are costlier and less efficient, and AR/AK rifles risk escalating tensions due to their "scary black gun" stigma.

The Glock G17, or budget clones like the Ruger RXM ($399–$499), remains the cornerstone of the average Joe’s defense, ensuring a carried, trained firearm that protects family without drawing unwanted attention. In a world where perception can be as critical as performance, choosing the right tool means balancing power with pragmatism.

Afterword

We’ve spent a lot of words talking about what kind of rifle might fit in a hallway. About ammo costs, optics profiles, lever guns versus black rifles. About how not to be seen, and what it might mean if you are.

But let’s be clear: none of these are solutions. They are stopgaps, built in the margins between infrastructure and absence.

You don’t need a long arm because the world is ending. You might need one because it isn’t—and you’re still here, holding space where the institutions failed to.

A gun can’t build trust. It won’t distribute insulin, or watch your kid while you fix the generator. It won’t stop the storm, or the bad laws, or the next power outage. But it might buy time. It might hold a doorway. It might remind the worst kind of people that your block isn’t an easy mark.

And even then—it works best when it’s not just your doorway.

So, yes. Choose carefully. Train honestly. Think ahead. But above all, remember: no one defends alone.